The following is the unedited transcript released from Census and Statistics Department, The Government of the Hong Kong

The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (January 24) the results of the Quarterly Business Tendency Survey for the first quarter (Q1) of 2008.
　　　
Business Situation

For all surveyed sectors taken together, significantly more respondents expect their business situation to be better, as compared to those expecting it to be worse, in Q1 2008 over Q4 2007.

Analysed by sector, significantly more respondents in the restaurants and hotels; transport and related services; communications; real estate; business services; and banks, financing and insurance sectors expect their business situation to be better, as compared to those expecting it to be worse, in Q1 2008 over Q4 2007.

Volume of Business/Output

Respondents in all surveyed sectors, except the manufacturing sector, expect an increase in their volume of business/output in Q1 2008 over Q4 2007. Among these sectors, significantly more respondents in the wholesale and retail; communications; and banks, financing and insurance sectors expect their volume of business/output to increase, as against those expecting it to decrease, in Q1 2008 over Q4 2007.

Employment

On employment, respondents in all surveyed sectors expect it to increase in Q1 2008 over Q4 2007. In particular, significantly more respondents in the wholesale and retail; import and export trade; real estate; and banks, financing and insurance sectors expect their number of persons engaged to increase, as compared to those expecting it to decrease, in Q1 2008 over Q4 2007.

Selling Price/Service Charge

Regarding selling price/service charge, respondents in all surveyed sectors expect it to increase in Q1 2008 over Q4 2007. In particular, significantly more respondents in the wholesale and retail; restaurants and hotels; and real estate sectors expect their selling price/service charge to increase, as against those expecting it to decline, in Q1 2008 over Q4 2007.

Further Information

The survey covers ten major sectors in Hong Kong, including the manufacturing; construction; wholesale and retail; import and export trade; restaurants and hotels; transport and related services; communications; real estate; business services; and banks, financing and insurance sectors.

The survey gathers views on short-term business performance from the senior management of about 560 prominent establishments in various sectors in Hong Kong with a view to providing a quick reference, with minimum time lag, for predicting the short-term future economic performance of the local economy. Views collected refer only to those of the respondents on their own establishments rather than those on the respective sectors they are engaged in; and are limited to the expected direction of quarter-to-quarter change (i.e. up, same or down) but not the magnitude of change. In collecting views on the quarter-to-quarter changes, if the variable in question may be subject to seasonal variations, respondents are asked to provide the expected changes after excluding the normal seasonal variations.

It has to be noted that in this type of survey on expectations, the views are affected by the events in the community occurring around the time of enumeration. The enumeration period for this survey round was from December 10, 2007 to January 10, 2008.

Survey results are generally presented as net balance, i.e. the difference between the percentage of respondents choosing up over that choosing down. The percentage distribution of respondents among various response categories (e.g. up, same and down) reflects how varied their business expectations are. The net balance, with its appropriate sign, indicates the direction of expected change in the variable concerned. A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, a likely downward trend. However, the magnitude of the net balance reflects only the prevalence of optimism or pessimism, but not the magnitude of expected change, since information relating to such magnitude is not collected in the survey.

Available at:

http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/press_release/press_releases_on_statistics/index.jsp?sID=2065&sSUBID=10672&displayMode=D